The move from analog to digital television has begun. In April 1997, the Federal Communications Commission voted to award digital television licenses to the 1600 television stations in the United States, which until now have only transmitted analog signals. In an effort to jump-start this transition to digital television, the FCC selected broadcasters in ten U.S. cities to begin offering digital service alongside their analog broadcasts by November 1998: New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia, Boston, Washington, San Francisco, Atlanta, Dallas-Fort Worth and Detroit. Stations either owned and operated by or affiliated with ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox in these cities will provide roughly 30 percent of all U.S. television households with digital signals. The agreement between these initial stations and the FCC is voluntary, and no penalties will result from a failure to comply with the November deadline. (Richard Duckett, Digital Evolution Sparking Revolution/HDTV is Truly Coming, But When?, SUNDAY TELEGRAM (Worcester, Mass.), April 20, 1997.) By May 1999, however, all of the commercial stations in these markets will be required to simulcast at least half of their analog programming in the digital format.

This initial foray into digital programming will be followed a year later with stations in the next 20 largest markets participating. Remaining broadcast stations around the nation were given a five-year deadline to aim for by the FCC, and PBS stations will have six years. Broadcasters across the country will have to transmit digitally exclusively by 2006. They will retain the digital television licenses given to them by the FCC last April, but will be required to return the analog portion of the spectrum.

Ideally, the switch to digital broadcasting will happen according to schedule, and the United States will be viewing solely digital programming within a decade. However, there are some potential problems that could stand in the way of an easy transfer.

One of the biggest questions is whether the FCC timeline can be met. Some feel that the FCC has created too short a period for stations to meet the demands of a digital broadcast. Among these demands are the high costs broadcasters will incur in replacing current technology. Many stations will need to put up new transmission lines and new antennas, along with purchasing new transmitters. Some stations will require completely new towers, as their current towers are not large enough to hold all of the new and necessary parts. This may cost millions of dollars, which may be prohibitive for some stations, particularly those in smaller markets. Added to the problem of cost is the limited number of companies who can construct these new towers. There are only about three companies in the United States that create towers for telecommunications, and only about twenty that are able to erect them. (Mary Challender, TV: The Next Generation, DES MOINES REG., January 22, 1998, available in 1998 WL 3190160.) This could create a problem for many broadcasters simultaneously trying to raise new towers and meet the FCC deadline.

Costs to the consumer could also play a role in slowing the transfer to digital television. Digital television sets, which are slated to go on sale this fall from such companies as Sony, Philips, Pioneer and Samsung, are expected to cost consumers anywhere from $2,000 to $10,000. (Robert Hawkins, HDTV Demonstration Steals Show, STATE J.-REG. (Springfield, Ill.), January 25, 1998, available in 1998 WL 5553928.) While the consumer prices of new technologies tend to fall rapidly in price as their consumer base grows and manufacturing becomes less expensive, the price of digital TVs may not drop as rapidly. Parts of the display device, including the picture tube, will require substantial raw materials and manufacturing precision. This means that as they are currently designed, they cannot be "stamped out" quickly like the parts of conventional television sets. (Richard Warren, System is Years in the Making, But Still Needs Some Fine-Tuning, CHI. TRIB., January 12, 1998, available in 1998 WL 2813687.) An alternative to the new television sets are converter boxes that will allow existing analog sets to receive a modified digital signal. These boxes will deliver only about two-thirds the performance of a new digital television, however, and models out late this year are expected to cost between $300 to $600. (Mitch Gitman, Digital TV Remarkable; So is the Price, ARIZ. DAILY STAR, January 19, 1998, available in 1998 WL 6195258.) It remains to be seen how many viewers will bite at these new technologies, and whether the demand will encourage or discourage broadcasters planning to revamp their operations.

The unknown costs to broadcasters and consumers create a "Catch-22" situation. Many broadcasters will not want to pay the high costs for the conversion to digital broadcasting until there is a sufficient audience base. Conversely, many viewers may put off purchasing the expensive new television sets until broadcasters provide them with ample digital programming.

The FCC appears to have taken notice of these potential problems, and has recently added a caveat to their 2006 deadline for a complete change to digital television. Older analog licenses will need to be returned only if 85 percent or more of the viewers in the area have the capability to receive the digital signal, through either a digital television set or a converter. (Hawkins.)

Regardless of whether the initial timeline laid out by the FCC can be met, the dawn of digital television has arrived. Soon, in ten cities across the country, those television viewers willing to put forth the money should be among the first to experience it.

A Digital Television Discussion Board is located at:
http://www.ktca.org/innertube/inside/bbs/index.html

REVISED APRIL 17, 1998